Wednesday, May 12, 2004
Musing on the election
A couple of pollsters (Zogby and Mark Mellman) speculate on Kerry's position, and consider it strong. I've been personally guessing Kerry's probability of winnning at about 65% for a month now. Brad DeLong evidently is also optimistic, and wonders what the R's can do to strengthen their position:
Admittedly, Brad's probably running into an unusually slice of Republicans, since he's a Berekeley economist. I can imagine any smart or libertarian Republicans have been hoping for a savior for years now. But a fair number of talking heads are off the reservation now (George Will, Andrew Sullivan), and the media strategy Republicans are pursuing now is rather high risk (and I think shot if the worse photos dribble out; if Iraq gets worse after June 30 and our troops keep dying; or if the economy is anything short of stellar through Nov). I can't imagine the heartland accepting the "betrayal" of their beloved cowboy, though, and Cheney would never go quietly. Nor is any groundwork laid for a strategic retreat of any kind on any issue. Every decision Bush ever makes is right, and every outcome is the best of all possible worlds.
In short, the macho posturing by the right, louder everyday, is surely a collective exercise to hide their growing nervousness. Would you want to keep that up for six months?
The time has passed for the grownup Republicans to play the inside game--to retire Cheney and fire Andrew Card and find Bush a new Prime Minister (Lugar? Domenici? Powell?) to run the government while Bush plays the Queen Elizabeth version of Head-of-State. The time has not yet passed for the grownup Republicans to play the outside game--to have the Republican Senate Caucus recommend that the Republican National Convention choose another candidate than George W. Bush to nominate. It would be good for the country. And it would, I think, probably be good for the Republican Party, for the Republicans I run into these days are almost as contemptuous of George W. Bush as the Democrats.
Admittedly, Brad's probably running into an unusually slice of Republicans, since he's a Berekeley economist. I can imagine any smart or libertarian Republicans have been hoping for a savior for years now. But a fair number of talking heads are off the reservation now (George Will, Andrew Sullivan), and the media strategy Republicans are pursuing now is rather high risk (and I think shot if the worse photos dribble out; if Iraq gets worse after June 30 and our troops keep dying; or if the economy is anything short of stellar through Nov). I can't imagine the heartland accepting the "betrayal" of their beloved cowboy, though, and Cheney would never go quietly. Nor is any groundwork laid for a strategic retreat of any kind on any issue. Every decision Bush ever makes is right, and every outcome is the best of all possible worlds.
In short, the macho posturing by the right, louder everyday, is surely a collective exercise to hide their growing nervousness. Would you want to keep that up for six months?
