Monday, November 01, 2004
Final election predictions
Back in August, I offered my election predictions. I predicted that the states would fall exactly as they did in 2000, except that Bush would win Florida, and Kerry would win Ohio and New Hampshire. I expected an overall popular vote of 51 to 46 for Kerry, and a Kerry electoral college victory with 292 votes.
Updating my predictions on election eve, I find that very little has changed. I stand by my predictions, with the caveat that I now think Florida is likely to go for Kerry, which would bring the total Kerry electoral votes up to 317. My popular vote guess still seems to be in the right ballpark (if I had to guess again, I might shave a point, to 50-47). But overall, I think this election is going to run as we've always expect--a close, hard fought contest coming down to Florida and Ohio, with worried glances at Wisconsin.
Here are the best summaries of state polls on the web: Sam Wong's meta-analysis gets top honors. (His predictions are also close to mine, which makes me feel better about my guesses). A nice collection of state polls can be had through the Votemaster, but beware---he doesn't average across polling organization, he just takes the "latest", which at this point (with many polls a day) is rather silly.
Despite these cheery predictions, the election is still balanced on a razor's edge. It will come down to turn out, and my predictions assume the Dems will do a better job there. So go out and prove me right:
VOTE TOMORROW.
But don't stop there. There's 36 hours to go. You can spend it calling voters in swing states to remind them to vote, or help them find their polling place or a ride to it. This really works, people---it's the most effective way to raise turnout and win close elections. And it takes volunteers. So even if you're not in a swing state, make your voice count!
JOIN A GET OUT THE VOTE PHONE PARTY.
Updating my predictions on election eve, I find that very little has changed. I stand by my predictions, with the caveat that I now think Florida is likely to go for Kerry, which would bring the total Kerry electoral votes up to 317. My popular vote guess still seems to be in the right ballpark (if I had to guess again, I might shave a point, to 50-47). But overall, I think this election is going to run as we've always expect--a close, hard fought contest coming down to Florida and Ohio, with worried glances at Wisconsin.
Here are the best summaries of state polls on the web: Sam Wong's meta-analysis gets top honors. (His predictions are also close to mine, which makes me feel better about my guesses). A nice collection of state polls can be had through the Votemaster, but beware---he doesn't average across polling organization, he just takes the "latest", which at this point (with many polls a day) is rather silly.
Despite these cheery predictions, the election is still balanced on a razor's edge. It will come down to turn out, and my predictions assume the Dems will do a better job there. So go out and prove me right:
VOTE TOMORROW.
But don't stop there. There's 36 hours to go. You can spend it calling voters in swing states to remind them to vote, or help them find their polling place or a ride to it. This really works, people---it's the most effective way to raise turnout and win close elections. And it takes volunteers. So even if you're not in a swing state, make your voice count!
JOIN A GET OUT THE VOTE PHONE PARTY.
