Sunday, February 20, 2005
A interesting rumor
"Sources" are passing the word that the US is in secret talks with a man who claims to be a representative of Sunni Baathist elements in the Iraqi insurgency would want to make a deal. I haven't, naturally, any idea whether the sources are telling the truth, whether this man is telling the truth, whether he is who he claims to be, and whether any putative deal is in earnest. But if true, this would be a big step---indeed, probably a necessary step---towards a stable Iraq.
How the Bush admin would play such a deal is another question. Talk about a commitment problem! Once the insurgents reveal themselves, they have no security from our overwhelming military power. It's the classic IR problem of being too strong to negotiate a good deal.
And how would the US enforce/coordinate deals with the (as yet undecided) coalition of Shias and Kurds in the National Assembly? And how would Sunnis who "sold out" be received by the public they seek to represent? Or, more pointedly, how do they protect themselves from the remaining rebels?
These aren't necessarily insoluble problems, but they sure are tough.
How the Bush admin would play such a deal is another question. Talk about a commitment problem! Once the insurgents reveal themselves, they have no security from our overwhelming military power. It's the classic IR problem of being too strong to negotiate a good deal.
And how would the US enforce/coordinate deals with the (as yet undecided) coalition of Shias and Kurds in the National Assembly? And how would Sunnis who "sold out" be received by the public they seek to represent? Or, more pointedly, how do they protect themselves from the remaining rebels?
These aren't necessarily insoluble problems, but they sure are tough.
