Mad Social Scientist

My friend Ryan has a post complaining about the choice of proportional representation in Iraq. I think the real issues are separate for the vote-aggregation rule, as I explain in this comment:

PR with MMD isn't really the problem here. In ethnically divided states lacking a history of democracy, elections, once introduced, tend to be ethnic censuses. That will happen under PR/MMD, FPTP/SMD or under Mixed systems.

Perhaps I'm too credulous of Arend Lijphart's claims of the virtues of so-called consociational institutions, but I think what Iraq really needs are more institutions that give the elites of all ethnic groups a stake and a say in collective negotiation of policy. Rather than focusing on the voting rules, I would emphasize 1.) strong federalism, with different regions enjoying autonomy over all policy areas where such autonomy is feasible and 2.) veto-status in national institutions for each ethnic group.

There is some degree of this written into the current rules, but not enough. The Sunnis can be shut out by a Shia-Kurd coalition, at least given the apparent turnout in the election. That is a bad system---you need a system that is boycott-proof, in the sense of giving Sunnis a say whether they try to refuse to participate or not. Then, you reward any Sunni leaders who choose the path of compromise and talk. But that path has to remain open, regardless of the outcome of elections, so long as ethnic division are deep.

Everything must be done to keep each group engaged in politics, so that they do not resort to violence. Even when they resort to violence, an avenue for political neogiation must always be open. The trick them becomes punishing particular elites who try to play both sides, war and politics, and rewarding those who virtuously stick to political negotiation. This is a lesson the Israelis have been very slow to learn, at their great cost, but they are starting to show signs of sense.

One hopes the US and Shia leadership will follow.

Naturually, any of my readers who are more knowledgable of Iraqi institutions or more cynical of consociationalism should beat me over the head for my naivete...