Sunday, June 20, 2004
Terrorism and elections
In an earlier post on the Spanish elections, I argued that when it comes to elections and terror, the best way for voters to avoid being manipulated by terrorists is to vote their consciences. Instead, if you set some simple decision rule, you can always be manipulated by terrorism. This holds whether the rule is "If there is a terror attack before the election, always vote for the incumbent, to show you can't be intimidated", or "Always vote for the challenger, because the government has failed to protect us."
Part of the reason I gave this advice is that it seems people have a hard time figuring out what outcomes terrorists want. For example, I've heard it argued that al-Qaeda would love to get Bush out of office, because he's doing such a bang-up job. I've said that al-Qaeda probably would prefer he stay, and a new book by an anonymous intelligence official agrees. He figures "Bush is taking the US in exactly the direction Bin Laden wants, towards all-out confrontation with Islam under the banner of spreading democracy." Moreover, he thinks al-Qaeda is getting stronger, and is capitalizing on the Iraq war.
Bottom line: don't worry about whether your vote is a vote for or against al-Qaeda; that way lies madness. Instead, ask which candidate will do the best job, which includes, among other things, fighting terrorism and cleaning up the Iraq mess.
Part of the reason I gave this advice is that it seems people have a hard time figuring out what outcomes terrorists want. For example, I've heard it argued that al-Qaeda would love to get Bush out of office, because he's doing such a bang-up job. I've said that al-Qaeda probably would prefer he stay, and a new book by an anonymous intelligence official agrees. He figures "Bush is taking the US in exactly the direction Bin Laden wants, towards all-out confrontation with Islam under the banner of spreading democracy." Moreover, he thinks al-Qaeda is getting stronger, and is capitalizing on the Iraq war.
Bottom line: don't worry about whether your vote is a vote for or against al-Qaeda; that way lies madness. Instead, ask which candidate will do the best job, which includes, among other things, fighting terrorism and cleaning up the Iraq mess.
